Bet on Daily Rainfall & Precipitation

Wager on daily rainfall or snowfall in cities like Seattle, Chicago, or Miami on Kalshi and Polymarket. Use Wethr.net for precise forecasts.

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What Are Rainfall & Precipitation Markets?

Rainfall and precipitation markets allow you to bet on whether a specific city will experience a certain amount of rainfall or snowfall on a given day. These daily markets are offered by Kalshi and Polymarket, making them ideal for weather enthusiasts and bettors who follow precipitation patterns.

For example, you might bet on whether Seattle will see at least 0.1 inches of rain tomorrow or if Chicago will get measurable snowfall today. To inform your bets, use real-time forecasts and historical precipitation data from Wethr.net.

Betting on Kalshi

Kalshi, a regulated US prediction market platform, offers daily rainfall and snowfall markets for cities like Seattle, Chicago, Boston, and New York. These markets are settled using official data from the National Weather Service (NWS) or NOAA, typically measured at specific weather stations (e.g., KSEA for Seattle).

  • Daily Markets: Bet on daily rainfall totals, like “Will Seattle get 0.1+ inches of rain on May 2, 2025?”
  • Data Source: Contracts settle using NWS/NOAA data from specified weather stations.
  • Bet Limits: Up to $25,000 per contract. Taker orders incur a transaction fee (0.07%–7% of expected earnings, based on contract price), maker orders are free, and withdrawals incur a $2 ACH fee. See Kalshi’s fee schedule.

Example: A Kalshi contract asks, “Will Chicago get at least 0.05 inches of precipitation on May 4, 2025?” The “Yes” contract costs $0.65. You buy 100 contracts for $65. If Chicago records 0.1 inches, you earn $100 ($35 profit). If it’s dry, you lose $65.

Check Chicago’s forecast on Wethr.net to guide your bet.

Betting on Polymarket

Polymarket, a decentralized crypto-based platform, offers daily rainfall and snowfall markets with global accessibility. Contracts are priced in USDC and settled using similar data sources like NOAA or NWS.

  • Global Markets: Bet on precipitation in international cities, such as London or Tokyo, in addition to US cities.
  • Flexible Bets: Includes unique daily markets driven by weather events or social media buzz.
  • Fees: No trading fees, but a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies.

Example: A Polymarket contract asks, “Will London get at least 1 mm of rain on May 5, 2025?” You buy 50 “Yes” contracts at $0.60 each ($30 total). If London records 2 mm, you earn $50 ($20 profit).

Use Wethr.net for international precipitation forecasts.

Tips for Rainfall Betting

Successful rainfall betting relies on understanding precipitation patterns and NWS data. Here are some tips:

Monitor NWS Forecasts

Check NWS precipitation forecasts for specific stations (e.g., KSEA for Seattle) via Wethr.net. Look for frontal systems or low-pressure areas.

Study Historical Data

Review past daily rainfall records on Wethr.net. For example, Seattle often sees light rain in May.

Engage with Communities

Join weather betting Discord groups or follow X accounts like @owlie_kalshi for real-time precipitation insights.

Understand Measurement

NWS measures precipitation to 0.01 inches. Trace amounts (<0.01 inches) may count as zero, so check contract terms.

Check City Forecasts

Select a city to view precipitation forecasts on Wethr.net and inform your bets.

Betting Calculator

Calculate potential profits for a daily rainfall bet based on contract price and quantity.

Start Betting on Daily Rainfall!

Use Wethr.net to analyze precipitation forecasts and place your bets on Kalshi or Polymarket.

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