Learn to bet on daily temperature, rainfall, hurricanes, and tornadoes using Kalshi’s regulated platform. Use Wethr.net for weather forecasts to boost your strategy.
Get StartedKalshi is a regulated US prediction market platform that lets you bet on weather events like daily high temperatures, rainfall, snowfall, hurricanes, and tornadoes. As a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated exchange, Kalshi offers transparent markets settled with official data from sources like the National Weather Service (NWS), NOAA, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Weather markets include daily bets (e.g., “Will NYC’s high exceed 90°F tomorrow?”) and monthly bets for hurricanes and tornadoes (e.g., “Will 10+ tornadoes occur in May?”). To make informed bets, use Wethr.net for real-time forecasts and historical data.
Follow these steps to start betting on weather markets with Kalshi:
Visit Kalshi.com and click “Sign Up.” Provide your email, create a password, and complete identity verification (KYC) with your name, address, and SSN (for US users). This ensures compliance with CFTC regulations.
Log in and navigate to the “Wallet” section. Link a bank account or debit card to deposit USD. Deposits are free, but withdrawals incur a $2 ACH fee. Start with a small amount (e.g., $50) to test the platform.
Browse Kalshi’s “Weather” category for markets like daily temperature (e.g., NYC, Miami), rainfall (e.g., Seattle), or hurricanes/tornadoes (daily or monthly). Each market lists the contract question, settlement date, and data source (e.g., NWS, NHC).
Before betting, visit Wethr.net to check forecasts and historical data. For example, analyze NYC’s temperature trends or tornado alerts in Oklahoma to estimate probabilities.
Select a contract (e.g., “Yes” for “Will Miami’s high exceed 85°F?”) and enter the number of contracts. Contracts cost $0.01–$0.99 each, reflecting probability. Taker orders incur a transaction fee (0.07%–7% of expected earnings, based on contract price), while maker orders are free. See Kalshi’s fee schedule for details.
Track your bet in Kalshi’s dashboard. Contracts settle after the event (e.g., next day for daily markets) using NWS/NOAA data. If you win, your payout ($1 per contract) is credited, minus any applicable taker fees.
Let’s walk through a daily temperature bet on Kalshi:
Market: “Will Chicago’s high temperature exceed 80°F on May 10, 2025?” (Settled using NWS data from KORD station).
Research: You check Wethr.net and see a forecast for 82°F with a warm front approaching.
Bet: The “Yes” contract costs $0.75 (75% win probability). You buy 100 contracts for $75 as a taker order, incurring a 1.67% fee ($0.31) on expected earnings ($18.75 = 100 * ($1 - $0.75)). Total cost: $75.31.
Outcome: Chicago’s high reaches 81°F. The contract settles, and you earn $100 ($1 per contract). Your profit is $24.69 ($100 - $75 - $0.31).
Maximize your success with these Kalshi-specific tips:
Kalshi relies on specific NWS stations (e.g., KNYC for NYC). Check station-specific forecasts on Wethr.net.
Review past weather data on Wethr.net to spot patterns, like frequent May tornadoes in Oklahoma.
Join Kalshi’s Discord or follow X accounts like @owlie_kalshi for market insights and weather discussions.
Place maker orders (limit orders) to avoid taker fees, which range from 0.07% to 7% based on contract price. Check the fee schedule.
Calculate potential profits for a Kalshi weather bet, accounting for taker fees based on contract price (assumes taker order).
Sign up, research with Wethr.net, and start betting on weather markets today!
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